Autonomous Vehicles NOT Ready for Prime-Time

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Ronzuki
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…and, after it emerged that Uber replaced a policy of having two engineers pilot its self-driving cars, with solo 'safety drivers' who receive just three weeks of training, including the felon and a former Pizza Hut manager. (gee, I wonder why they did that :roll: :roll: )

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... trian.html

and…

According to a company document, Uber was struggling to meet safety goals - Uber's cars were unable to reach 13 miles (21km) without intervention
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... crash.html

oops.

NOT READY! But the investors are screaming...deadlines must be met ya know...so much for safety aye? Yeah, this kind of BS never happens in an automation project, ever. 30 years of experience in all kinds of automation...I'm shocked and appalled! :lol:
Ron

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KuroNekko
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LPSISRL wrote: That's exactly the piece of data left out. 150 million more miles driven in 2015 than in 2013. Sounds like a lot and it supports your hypothesis. But maybe not. In 2015 there were 7.8 million more cars registered than in 2013. (263.6 vs 255.8) Assuming, (making an ass of you and me) 12K miles on the average per year for those additional cars, that's 93.6 million additional miles driven simply by the increase in the number of cars. Now you spread the real difference of 56.4 million miles between the other 255.8 million cars and the increase does not look very significant. That's .2 miles per car. What if the average number of miles driven was 15K or 18K? At 18K per year, the number of additional miles driven is about totally wiped out by the additional cars. BUT... How many more drivers were there? How many were actually on the roads and not sitting in driveways and dealer lots? That's the problem with statistics.
"In 2015 there were 7.8 million more cars registered than in 2013."
You're right that in the grand scheme of nationwide statistics for the United States, 7.8 million is really a nominal number. While this does suggest an addition of millions of cars, you also have to account for the number of cars that were junked, totaled beyond repair, and rendered inoperable between that time. Much like with birth statistics and population numbers, you have to examine death statistics. In come the new, but out go the old.
That being said, the number is by registration which doesn't exclude older cars on the road and the 7.8 million is a difference, meaning growth in number in this case. However, that seems to actually support my main argument: cheaper gas prices causing more people to drive. The additional registration figures during the time when gas is cheap actually seem to reflect that more people bought cars and drove due to lower gas prices than alternatives such as carpooling, public transportation, cycling, etc. It's likely that the lower gas prices positively affected car sales and increased registration numbers which then meant more cars and more drivers at any given time in 2015 than in 2013. This then made accidents and motor vehicle deaths more likely.

The statistics reminds me of someone I know who used to ride the Metro (the subway system) in DC to work. When gas prices got so low, it made less and less sense for her to take over twice the amount of time to ride the Metro in to work. She then got a Prius and started driving herself. The low gas prices in this case added another car on the road. While empirical data is the weakest in any argument, I can't help but to note the increase in traffic I observed in my commute when the gas prices plummeted. It really did seem like more people were driving.
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LPSISRL
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I don't disagree that the lower gas prices had an effect on the increased number of cars on the road and the miles driven. We'll just never know how much as it's guesswork at best. I thought about those cars that came off the road through wrecks, junked, etc. but I didn't include those as I figured that they would no longer be registered. After all, who wants to pay for a vehicle you no longer own? The statistics I quoted were for total registered vehicles and not new registrations. Sorry if I did not make that clear. I did the math on that which was simply subtraction so I hope I did it correctly!
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KuroNekko
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LPSISRL wrote:I don't disagree that the lower gas prices had an effect on the increased number of cars on the road and the miles driven. We'll just never know how much as it's guesswork at best. I thought about those cars that came off the road through wrecks, junked, etc. but I didn't include those as I figured that they would no longer be registered. After all, who wants to pay for a vehicle you no longer own? The statistics I quoted were for total registered vehicles and not new registrations. Sorry if I did not make that clear. I did the math on that which was simply subtraction so I hope I did it correctly!
I knew that regarding "registered" vehicles but I think the increase reflects more new and preowned cars on the road because people chose to buy them and drive instead of alternatives to driving. Again, I think the lower cost of gasoline had a lot to do with it.
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LPSISRL
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And now, out of the cheaper gas rabbit hole and back to our regularly scheduled program...
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Ronzuki
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The polar-opposite of autonomous...in function and cost of ownership....

https://www.ericpetersautos.com/2018/03 ... ant-drive/
Ron

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Woodie
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That's cool. Just register it as a 1970 or so Jeep.
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Ronzuki
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Still needs turn signals, a DOT approved windshield w/ wipers and a license plate bracket w/ light. THEN, a VIN number and title from said era's Heep to register it under (likely a CJ7 would be the closest appearing and not raise eyebrows). Technically illegal mind you. In PA, it's a real PITA to accomplish a farce such as that. The diesel engine would be the biggest hurdle to overcome in the masquerade. Of course over in India, they're fully outfitted, and road-ready, with all of that stuff along w/ hard doors and even a CJ7 grille. But oh-no...not here. It could be done and I'm sure it will be done.
Ron

2010 Kizashi GTS, CVT, iAWD (3/10 build date)
2011 SX4 Premium Hatch, CVT, iAWD (12/10 build date)
2018 Mazda CX-5 iAWD Touring
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redmed
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I have found this thread very interesting and find myself agreeing with both viewpoints. Overall I agree autonomous vehicles are not ready for prime time yet. I also do not like all the government imposed babysitting. TPMS, airbags, cameras on police vehicles recording and storing our movement patterns everywhere. On the otherhand, I do expect in the future, autonomous driving will become prevalent and reduce accidents and deaths. What the timeframe will be I do not have a clue but knowing mans quest for improvement it will happen. In the meantime I will keep dodging cars drifting into my lane as the driver is texting.

This summer my 85 year old mother hit another car trying to shoot thru traffic, crossing in front of her at 90 degrees. My mother claims she didn’t have time to react. I was not there, so I do not know if her reaction time is too slow, but know that it will deteriorate in the future. She wanted me to find a new SUV for her so I found her a 2017 Honda CRV. One of the prime reasons I chose the CRV was that it had the “Collision Mitigation Braking System” in the hope it will extend her ability to safely drive an additional year or two. That Safety package also had Lane Keeping Assist System, Adaptive Cruise Control and Road Departure Mitigation. This is my first experience with these systems and during test drives I was very impressed to the point that I considered trading in my 4 month old Toyota Sienna to get a vehicle with a safety package. Since then I have driven that CRV on side roads that do not have painted white lines on the shoulder side of the road and the CRV ends up swerving unto the gravel shoulder. This dampened my enthusiasm and expectations of current safety systems. From this experience and what I have read about the Tesla, Cadillac and Volvo systems. Autonomous vehicles may be close but not quite ready to fully trust without an alert human co-driver. I do know first hand Driver-less vehicles have been tested on the road for some time. Years ago maybe 8-13 years ago while driving on I94 west of Ann Arbor MI (not far from where autonomous vehicles are tested today) I noticed a Dodge minivan with a strange bump on the roof driving in front of me. As I passed it I looked over to see the driver and did not see anyone! I told my wife and slowed down to ride alongside of the vehicle and she could not see a driver.
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WESHOOT2
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No.
Just no.

I am autonomous. Not my vehicle........ :facepalm:
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